Some nickel salt smelters have suspended their quotations, while nickel ore prices in the Philippines are expected to continue fluctuating upward. [SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Summary]

4.1Nickel Morning Meeting Minutes

Refined Nickel:

SMM March31: Spot premiums/discounts: The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No.1 nickel was 1,300-1,600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 1,450 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The premium/discount quotation range for Russian nickel was -200 to 100 yuan/mt, at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Futures: Nickel prices fell after opening today. As of11:30, the closing price was 128,940 yuan/mt, down 1.46% from the previous trading day's settlement price, with the lowest price touching 128,580 yuan/mt.

Spot premiums/discounts: Jinchuan brand nickel prices fell 200 yuan from the previous trading day. Due to slower-than-expected recovery in downstream demand, the market remains dominated by just-in-time restocking, with traders choosing to moderately lower prices to test whether demand can be re-stimulated.

From a macro perspective, SHFE nickel futures contracts fell in the morning session, likely influenced by the general decline in non-ferrous metal products today. Subsequent attention should be paid to the implementation of policies in Indonesia, and nickel prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term.

Price spread with nickel sulphate: Today, the SMM1# refined nickel price was 129,600-132,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 131,000 yuan/mt, down 1,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day's spot price. The spread range was approximately 2,550 yuan/mt (Ni contained), with nickel sulphate still at a discount to refined nickel.

Nickel Sulphate:

March31, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 28,030 yuan/mt, with the battery-grade nickel sulphate quotation range at 27,970-28,550 yuan/mt, and the average price was flat WoW.

Cost side, MHP market circulation is tight, and some nickel sulphate smelters have not yet completed MHP stockpiling for Q2. Due to recent MHP production falling short of expectations, the supply-demand gap is expected to further widen, leading to continued increases in MHP price coefficients. Nevertheless, refined nickel production costs may limit the extent of the increase. On the supply side, some nickel salt smelters have stopped quoting due to critically low inventories. Additionally, some nickel salt smelters maintain a firm stance on quotes due to relatively tight nickel salt circulation. On the demand side, some precursor plants have increased their acceptance of nickel sulphate prices due to low raw material inventory levels and recent restocking needs. Currently, buyers and sellers are still in a price negotiation phase, and nickel sulphate prices are expected to have room for further increases in the short term.

Nickel Pig Iron:

SMM March31: The average price of SMM8-12% high-grade NPI was 1,029.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 1.5 yuan/mtu from the previous working day. Supply side, domestic Philippine nickel ore replenishment remains weak, with smelter profits slightly recovering and limited production increases. In Indonesia, nickel mine output still needs time to materialize, with current premiums at highs, and although there is new production, capacity release is limited, leading to a slight increase in Indonesian NPI supply. Demand side, stainless steel production remains high, with optimistic demand for high-grade NPI, coupled with tight market circulation, resulting in concentrated transaction price ranges for NPI. In the short term, high-grade NPI prices are expected to remain stable.

Stainless Steel:

March31: Supported by costs, stainless steel spot prices are on an upward trend, but downstream sentiment remains cautious, with mediocre transactions. Futures side, the most-traded contract 2505 fluctuated downward, and at 10:30 AM, SS2505 was quoted at 13,445 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt; influenced by the decline in SHFE nickel prices, the most-traded stainless steel contract price fell. In Wuxi, the spot premium/discount for 304/2B was in the range of 325-625 yuan/mt.

Today, spot prices rose. Cost support drove prices up, with some stainless steel mills and spot traders raising quotes, but transactions remained mediocre. By series, the price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,200 yuan/mt, and in Foshan, 8,225 yuan/mt. The average price of cold-rolled cut edge 304/2B coil in Wuxi was 14,025 yuan/mt, and in Foshan, 13,950 yuan/mt. The price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was 24,300 yuan/mt, and in Foshan, 24,550 yuan/mt. The price of hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was 23,600 yuan/mt, and in Foshan, 23,650 yuan/mt. The price of cold-rolled 430/2B coil in Wuxi was 7,500 yuan/mt, and in Foshan, 7,475 yuan/mt.

Nickel Ore:

Last week, Philippine low-grade and high-grade nickel ore prices remained stable, while medium and high-grade ore FOB prices were adjusted upward during the week, with medium and high-grade nickel ore prices experiencing a slight increase. The main reasons are twofold: first, as an exporter, Indonesian nickel ore prices have risen and are expected to continue rising, providing some support for Philippine nickel ore export prices; second, from a supply-demand perspective, the Surigao region began offering shipments this month, but supply recovery has been slow due to weather conditions. On the demand side, most domestic nickel pig iron plants still have low inventory levels, with strong demand for just-in-time raw material procurement. However, although the recent rise in downstream high-grade NPI prices has brought some profit recovery, domestic iron plants are still in a loss-making position, with limited ability to accept high-priced nickel ore. Ocean freight rates were slightly reduced during the week, with the rate from Surigao to Lianyungang, China, down by $0.5/wmt. Overall, influenced by the strong supply-weak demand pattern and rising Indonesian ore prices, Philippine prices have increased. SMM expects that Philippine ore prices may continue to rise in the short term.

Current market transaction prices: For pyrometallurgical ore, SMM Indonesian local ore 1.6% weekly price was $51/wmt; for hydrometallurgical ore, SMM Indonesian local ore 1.2% weekly price was $26/wmt. Indonesian pyrometallurgical nickel ore may rise again in April, with current April premiums of $23-25 under negotiation, while hydrometallurgical ore CIF prices may remain stable or slightly weak. From a supply perspective, the prolonged rainy season in Sulawesi this year has affected nickel ore mining and transportation, with supply recovery in main mining areas like Sulawesi being relatively slow. Additionally, the Indonesian Lebaran holiday from late March to early April, with mines and workers on leave, will also affect nickel ore supply. On the demand side, Indonesian nickel pig iron smelters generally have low raw material inventory and need to restock just-in-time, coupled with expectations of NPI production increases, demand-side support remains.SMM expects nickel ore supply may continue to be tight. Policy-wise, the PNBP policy is still expected to be implemented soon. If the policy is implemented, nickel ore mine sales costs will increase, and with current downstream NPI and MHP prices continuing to rise, from the current market situation, mines have strong bargaining power, and the cost increase from this policy may be largely passed on to downstream enterprises, providing strong support for nickel ore prices. For hydrometallurgical ore, downstream MHP has strong expectations for short-term production cuts, with demand support significantly weakening, and prices may trend weakly. Overall, SMM expects Indonesian local pyrometallurgical nickel ore prices may continue to rise, while Indonesian local hydrometallurgical nickel ore prices may remain stable or slightly weak.